The unique location of Kerala in the southwest coast of India is such that it receives a considerable amount of rainfall during both the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons. However, changing climate has affected the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall over Kerala during both these seasons. Recent years have seen several extremely heavy rainfall events taking place in Kerala during the southwest monsoon season. Unprecedented floods were witnessed across the state during consecutive summer monsoon seasons of 2018 and 2019. The northeast monsoon season has also seen considerable variability, with several heavy rainfall events associated with the increasing number of large-scale low-pressure systems developing over the Arabian Sea during the months of October and November. According to the India Meteorology Department (IMD), the highest rainfall in October in the last 120 years was observed during 2021.

This group focuses on the changing wind patterns over Kerala during the transition from southwest to northeast monsoon. The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from the tip of the Indian peninsula has been delayed during the current decade, this has in turn resulted in the delayed onset of the northeast monsoon and altered the rainfall characteristics during several years. The influence of basin scale features like IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) and El Niño on the rainfall variability over Kerala are explored. The spatial and temporal variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over Kerala and South Peninsular India (SPI) during the past four decades are also studied. An analysis using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model is also planned to examine the sensitivity of Kerala rainfall to sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the Arabian Sea.

Team